IRVING, Texas—Vizient announced the release of the 2026 Impact of Change forecast, which highlighted how shifts in care delivery, patient complexity and site-of-care access challenges are reshaping healthcare utilization. The 10-year forecast projects continued growth in outpatient services as more care shifts to ambulatory sites, creating new challenges for capacity planning, workforce strategy and care coordination. Additionally, artificial intelligence, virtual health and emerging technologies are reshaping how organizations plan for and deliver care.
The forecast found that demand is increasingly shaped by an aging population, rising chronic disease prevalence and continued migration of care to ambulatory settings. Home health volumes are expected to increase 13% over the next five years as services shift beyond traditional hospital settings. At the same time, as insurance coverage contracts, more patients are expected to delay preventive care and rely on emergency departments, helping drive a projected 6% increase in adult visits over the next decade.
“These forecasts reflect a fragmented healthcare system adapting to a new normal," said Brianna Motley, vice president of Vizient strategy intelligence. "As care moves beyond the traditional hospital settings, utilization is shaped by demographic, technological and clinical factors. Health systems need data-driven planning and advanced analytics to anticipate change and meet future demand."
The Impact of Change forecast highlighted several trends affecting healthcare delivery and its service lines, including:
- Post-acute care: Volumes are expected to increase by 31% as the population ages, acuity rises and more recovery, rehabilitation and chronic care shifts beyond traditional hospital settings.
- Pediatric care: Continued declines in birth rates are reshaping demand, with outpatient volumes growing 6%, while inpatient utilization remains constrained.
- Cancer care demand: Outpatient volumes will grow 20%, while inpatient demand remains flat as diagnostics, treatment and follow-up care shift to ambulatory settings.
- Virtual care expansion: One in five evaluation and management visits will occur remotely by 2036, reflecting the continuation of digital care models across the healthcare system.
- Behavioral health: Rising prevalence and acuity continue to drive demand, while care increasingly expands into community-based and virtual settings.
- Orthopedics: Workforce and policy pressures are accelerating the shift to ambulatory, rehabilitation and lower-resource care settings.
- Women’s health: Strong growth in the ages 65 and over population supports a growing need for pelvic health and menopause services.
“Healthcare organizations are facing an unprecedented rate of change, and the margin of error is slimmer than ever,” said Arun Ramasubramanian, president of Vizient data and digital. "At Vizient, we are directly meeting this challenge by providing intelligent orchestration capabilities that shorten the distance between knowledge and outcomes. This empowers health systems to act with speed and precision.”
Read more about the Impact of Change.