Mercer Forecasts 100,000 Health Care Worker Shortage by 2028

NEW YORK—Mercer, a business of Marsh McLennan that helps clients realize their investment objectives, shape the future of work and enhance health and retirement outcomes for their people, released a new research report, “Future of the U.S. Healthcare Industry: Labor Market Projections by 2028.” The report projects a nationwide health care worker shortage of 100,000 by 2028.

Even before COVID-19, the U.S. health care labor market faced challenges with the demand for professionals in health care occupations outpacing supply. Mercer’s new report highlights how factors such as accelerated resignations, burnout among health care workers, an aging population and wages that lag the broader labor market are contributing to the decline in labor supply in certain states, particularly for primary care physicians, advanced practice providers and nurses.

“A shortage of 100,000 health care workers will exacerbate existing disparities in health care access in certain states,” said Dan Lezotte, a partner in Mercer’s U.S. Workforce Strategy and Analytics Practice. “It is imperative that health care systems take action and develop strategies to address shortages so patient care is not impacted.”

The analysis emphasizes the importance of having a strong workforce strategy to compete both with other health care organizations and with employers in other industries. To combat labor shortages, employers will need to develop comprehensive strategic plans and innovative tactics for attracting and retaining talent, encompassing strong compensation and benefits packages and creative ways of sourcing talent, redesigning work, optimizing schedules and more.

It is also crucial for health care systems and governments to work together to address specific labor gaps across locations and occupations, including subspecialties within health care labor, such as physicians who specialize in women’s health or young children. Through collaboration, states can close these gaps and create stronger health care systems.

State Disparities in Primary Care Subspecialties

The analysis finds that access to qualified primary care will vary across the U.S. Deficits in specialized primary care physicians—such as obstetrician-gynecologists (OB-GYNs), pediatricians and family medicine doctors—will be acute in certain states. For example, despite an overall surplus of health care workers, California is expected to face a shortage of more than 2,500 primary care physicians, with pediatricians and family medicine physicians accounting for more than half of this shortage, creating barriers to accessing specialized primary care.

A Severe Shortage of Nursing Assistants Expected Nationally

Nursing assistants have the biggest projected deficit over any other analyzed health care occupation, signaling the need to improve talent attraction and retention strategies for this segment. By 2028, Mercer expects a projected deficit of over 73,000 nursing assistants nationwide. The slow growth rate (0.1%) of nursing assistants, particularly in states such as New York, Texas and California, where shortages of over 11,000, 12,000 and 14,000 workers respectively are projected, will directly impact patient care and the burnout and attrition rates of other healthcare workers that depend on them.

Surplus of Registered Nurses (RNs) & Home Health & Personal Care Aides (HHAs)

At a national level, the supply of RNs is projected to outpace demand, resulting in an estimated surplus of nearly 30,000 RNs by 2028. However, employers in states such as New York, New Jersey and Connecticut will experience shortages and may look to Pennsylvania for supply.

Encouragingly, the labor supply of HHAs is projected to exceed demand nationally by almost 48,000 workers by 2028, with an average annual growth rate of 3.4%. However, health care employers will be competing with many other industries for these lower-wage workers and may find it difficult to hire them unless wages are competitive.

Nurse Practitioners on the Rise But Shortages Expected

Nurse practitioners are expected to have the fastest growth rate (3.5%). Despite this growth, however, the analysis projects a nationwide shortage of nurse practitioners. The combined impact of both nurse practitioner and physician shortages may disrupt preventative care delivery in some states.

William Self, a partner and Mercer’s Global Workforce Strategy and Analytics Leader, said, “American health care workers are under enormous strain. Burnout, under-compensation and wage stagnation have had material impacts on the supply of health care labor.

“Prolonged inflation in healthcare costs, combined with these critical labor shortages, could present an existential threat to some health care systems,” Self continued. “The inability to attract the right health care labor will make operating in certain locations much more difficult and increase health equity gaps, like those between rural and urban populations.”

View an interactive map of Mercer’s U.S. health care labor projections across a sample of healthcare occupations here.