2006 Forecast

French author Alphonse Karr said, “The more things change, the more they remain the same.”

Well, in France maybe. But for home medical equipment providers in the U.S. this year, the changes have been monumental, they are not over — and things will probably never be the same.

Data for HomeCare's annual Forecast Survey were gathered from mid-August through September. That means respondents answered our questionnaire before the announcement that CMS would reduce its dispensing fees for inhalation drugs next year, before the interim final rule for power mobility took effect, before talk that another oxygen cut might be looming and before agency officials confirmed that supplier quality standards would not be finalized until next spring and accreditors not named until after that.

The unsettling part is that, judging from the survey results, HME providers were already fretting about the uncertainties for their businesses in 2006.

In fact, when we asked participants to single out only one thing as their most pressing business concern, they couldn't, naming instead cost control, reimbursement cuts and competitive bidding as a disturbing trio of troubles. And they added a string of challenges topped by unethical competitors, accreditation, claim denials and processing time, consumer-direct selling by manufacturers and simply keeping up with legislative and regulatory twists and turns.

But reflecting the optimism characteristic of so many HME owners, their worries don't seem to be hindering buying plans. Although the kinds of products providers say they will purchase in 2006 have changed little from previous years, more providers overall told us they will be in the market.

An unprecedented 80 percent said they will purchase nebulizers and ambulatory aids, and more than 70 percent said they will buy beds/mattresses/pads, bath safety products, manual wheelchairs and oxygen concentrators. Rounding out the year's top 10 purchases will be CPAPs/bi-levels, lift chairs, oxygen conservers and patient lifts. Providers explain that, because home patients' needs don't change much, neither do their buying habits as they restock the items that keep getting ordered.

Recent events in the power mobility sector have had an impact on purchase intentions, however. In last year's survey, power wheelchairs and scooters ranked 11th and 12th on providers' shopping list. This time, these vehicles fell to respective positions 19 and 20.